多主体协同治理下城市密集建筑群火灾风险管理与应用  

Fire Risk Management and Application of Urban Dense Buildings under the Multi-Agent Collaborative Governance

作　　者：庞素琳[1,2] 房秋文 蔡牧夫 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学公共管理学院/应急管理学院/金融工程研究所,广州510632 [2]广东省公共网络安全风险评价与预警应急技术研究中心,广州510632

出　　处：《管理评论》2016年第8期260-272,共13页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173089);广东省科技计划资助项目(1311220800027;2016A020224001)

摘　　要：本文提出研究基于LEC评价法的多主体协同治理城市密集建筑群火灾风险管理方法,从风险识别、风险评价与评估、平台构建与实现方法、案例分析、政策建议等,给出了一套多主体协同治理下城市密集建筑群火灾的创新风险管理思路;首次将城市密集建筑群火灾风险管理的多主体分为外部相关主体、内部主体和基层主体三大类,并对各类相关多主体进行主体和客体脆弱性分析;运用多主体协同治理理论、结合海因里希因果连锁理论和LEC评价法相结合,对城市密集建筑群火灾风险发生的可能性、暴露性以及导致的结果进行风险评价和危险性评估;构建了多主体协同治理下城市密集建筑群火灾风险管理系统平台,实现了对城市密集建筑群火灾风险进行多主体实时联动治理;本文还结合天津滨海新区大爆炸案例,设计了相应的多主体治理方案,对火灾危险等级进行LEC评价,并进行多主体联动治理系统平台应用;最后,本文给出城市密集建筑群火灾风险管理相关政策建议。本文的研究对我国城市密集建筑群火灾风险管理具有重要的理论指导意义和科学实践价值。This paper proposes a fire risk management method of urban dense buildings under the theory of multi-agent collaborative gov- ernance. In terms of risk identification, risk assessment and evaluation, platform construction and implementation, case studies, policy recommendations, it gives a set of multi-agent cooperative governance and fire risk management concepts of urban dense buildings. It is the first time the multi-agent of risk management of urban dense buildings is divided into three categories ： The external body, the inner body and grassroots, and it analyses the vulnerability of various related subject and objects. Using the theory of multi-agent cooperative governance, Heinrieh causal chain theory and LEC evaluation method, we assess the risk and the danger of the possibility on exposure and result of fire risk of urban dense buildings. And we construct a multi-agent cooperative governance platform system of fire risk man- agement of urban dense buildings, to achieve real-time multi-agent interaction. Combined with the case of big bang case of Tianjin Binhai New Area, this paper designs the corresponding multi-agent governance programs, analyses the vulnerabilities of multi-agent risk man- agement, accesses the fire danger level by LEC evaluation, and applies the multi-agent interaction management system as a platform. Fi- nally, this paper presents some relevant policy recommendations of urban dense buildings, fire risk management. This study has impor- tant theoretical significance and practical value in the science of urban dense buildings, fire risk management.

关 键 词：城市密集建筑群 火灾风险管理 多主体协同治理 LEC评价法 平台构建 

分 类 号：D632.5[政治法律—政治学]