基于层次分析法和专家经验的预付费电能表用户欠费风险评估策略  

Arrears Risk Assessment Strategy for Prepaid Energy Meter Customers Based on Analytical Hierarchy Process and Expert Experience

作　　者：潘俊涛 李泰霖 李金瑾 唐志涛 

机构地区：[1]广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,南宁530023

出　　处：《广西电力》2016年第4期15-17,21,共4页Guangxi Electric Power

摘　　要：数量巨大的预付费电能表安装运维工作量非常大,如何辨识并优先安排具有较大欠费风险的用户安装预付费电能表,成为一个亟需解决的问题。为此,提出了预付费电能表用户欠费风险评估方法,首先基于层次分析法建立预付费电能表用户欠费风险特性评估流程,通过从可靠性指标、经济性指标、历史数据分析和用户供电模式4个方面建立预付费用户欠费风险特性评估指标,并利用9位标度法和专家经验按层分组、自下而上的方式确定各指标的权重分配。最后通过算例对3个预付费用户欠费风险特性进行评估,验证了方法的可行性和有效性。The installation, operation and maintenance of a huge number of prepaid energy meters is very large work, so that how to identify and arrange in priority the installation of prepaid energy meters for those customers who have greater arrears risk is an urgent problem to be solved. For that reason, the arrears risk assessment method of prepaid energy meter customers is proposed. Firstly, the arrears risk characteristics assessment process of prepaid energy meter customers is built based on analytical hierarchy process. Arrears risk characteristics assessment index of prepaid energy meter customers are built from four aspects including： reliability index, economic index, history data analysis and power supply mode of customers and so on, and nine scale method and expert experience are used to determine weight assignation of each index by modes of grouped by layer and bottom-up approach. Finally, arrears risk characteristics of three prepaid energy meter customers are assessed through an example which testifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.

关 键 词：预付费电能表 层次分析法 专家经验 欠费风险 评估策略 

分 类 号：TM933.4[电气工程—电力电子与电力传动]