保定地区1368-1911年旱涝序列重建与特征分析  

Research on the sequence reconstruction and characteristics diagnosis of droughts and floods in Baoding during 1368-1911

作　　者：王洪波[1] 韩光辉[1] 杨冉冉[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [2]中国环境科学研究院环境信息科学研究所,北京100012

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2016年第7期144-150,共7页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(项目批准号:41230634;41330748)资助

摘　　要：基于历史文献记录,利用旱涝指数法,重建了1368—1911年保定地区旱涝序列。利用偏度-峰度检验、滑动t-检验、累积距平、小波分析等方法检测了研究区旱涝灾害总体特征、跃变点、旱涝阶段性、周期性。利用1380年以来华北温度序列,比较了旱涝灾害与气候冷暖关系。结果表明,1368-1911年保定地区旱涝序列为偏态分布,涝灾频率高于旱灾。1437年、1500年、1578年、1607年、1648年、1670年、1701年为气候跃变年份,1501-1606年、1649-1669年、1794-1911年气候相对湿润,1437-1500年、1607-1648年、1670-1793年气候相对干旱。旱涝变化存在64a,30a,11a三种周期,旱涝灾害与气候冷暖在研究区内没有简单的对应关系。According to a variety of historical archives, chorographies of Ming Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China, supplemented with contemporary extraction, 1433 notes that recorded the flood and drought disasters occurring in Baoding from 1368 to 1911 were collected. Using Drought and Flood Index established by Zheng Jingyun et al, a graded series of dryness/wetness during 1368 -1911 has been rebuilt. The characteristics including the whole distribution, jump point, phases and periodicity of droughts and floods over the past 544 years in Baoding were diagnosed by employing the methods of skewness - kurtosis testing, moving t -test technique, accumulative anomaly and wavelet analysis. The results revealed that the dryness/wetness series was a skew distribution, floods were more than droughts. Climate jumped in the vear of 1437, 1500, 1578, 1607, 1648, 1670 and 1701. 1501 -1606, 1649 -1669 and 1794 -1911 were the relatively humid periods; 1437- 1500, 1607- 1648 and 1670- 1793 were the relatively drought periods. Wavelet analysis showed that droughts and floods had 3 scale periods ：64a,30a and 11 a. Comparison of the dryness/wetness series with the curves of mean 10 years temperature since 1380 demonstrated the corresponding relationship between the dryness/wetness series and the curves of temperature was not significant.

关 键 词：历史气候 保定地区 旱涝序列 旱涝特征 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]