我国旅游业发展的空间相关性及其影响因素分析——来自MESS模型的经验证据  

Spatial autocorrelation and influencing factors of the tourism development in China: Empirical evidence from MESS model

作　　者：金春雨[1,2] 王伟强[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心 [2]吉林大学商学院,长春130012

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2016年第8期198-202,共5页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(10BJL041);吉林省科技发展计划软科学研究项目(20130420035FG)资助

摘　　要：文中基于矩阵指数空间规范(MESS)模型对我国旅游业发展的空间相关性及其影响因素进行实证分析,研究发现:我国各地区旅游业发展存在显著的空间相关性,与传统的SAR模型和SEM模型相比,MESS模型能够更加有效的识别我国地区间旅游业发展的空间相关性。经济发展水平、人口密度和旅游接待能力对我国地区旅游业发展都具有显著的正向影响,但对外开放程度、旅游资源禀赋和交通便利程度对我国旅游业发展均产生了抑制作用。In this research, based on the matrix exponential spatial specification （MESS）, we empirically analyzed the spatial autocorrelation of regional tourism development and its influencing factors in China. The empirical resuits show that the regional tourism development of China was characterized by significant spatial autocorrelation. The MESS model could effectively identify the potential spatial autocorrelation of regional tourism development what the traditional SAR and SEM model couldnt identify. The results show that factors such as the level of economic development, the scale of population and the capacity of tourism reception had positive effects on the regional tourism development in China. However, the level of opening up, regional tourism resources and the degree of transportation convenience restricted the development of regional tourism.

关 键 词：旅游业 MESS模型 空间相关性 

分 类 号：F590.3[经济管理—旅游管理]