基于多重对应分析法的不同电缆群体故障特性研究  

Study on Failure Behavior of a Diverse Population of Cables Based on Multiple Correspondence Analysis

作　　者：文锐 张俊 黄晓军 周文俊[2] 王航[2] 唐泽洋[3] 

机构地区：[1]国网江苏省电力公司苏州供电公司,苏州215000 [2]武汉大学电气工程学院,武汉430072 [3]国网湖北省电力公司电力科学研究院,武汉430077

出　　处：《高电压技术》2016年第8期2406-2415,共10页High Voltage Engineering

基　　金：国网江苏省电力公司科技项目(J2015062)~~

摘　　要：导致电缆故障的因素有很多,现有的文献通常针对某一特定的故障因素与故障行为进行关联分析,却无法获取差异性电缆群体的故障行为特性。为此,结合国内某市供电公司的中压电缆故障统计数据,基于多重对应分析法(MCA),对导致电缆故障的诸多因素进行了关联分析,并利用2维感知图直观显示了诸多因素对电缆故障行为的影响程度,随后根据故障电缆以往的运行表现得分对不同结构特点的电缆群体进行了分类,使同一小组内的电缆具有类似的电缆故障行为特性。研究结果表明:所提出的电缆群体分类方法以所有不同结构特点的电缆为对象,主观性较少;与电缆结构特点和故障特征相关的变量有6个;根据电缆本体的历史故障统计数据,可将所有不同结构特性的电缆线路分成3类;根据电缆中间接头的历史故障统计数据,可将所有不同结构特性的电缆线路分成4类,从而可探讨每一类电缆群体的故障发展趋势。每一类电缆群体的历史故障特性和未来发展趋势均不相同,因此,对于某一类相同结构特点的电缆线路,需制定针对性的检修策略和电缆更换计划。The study of failure behavior of a diverse population of cables is challenging. Previous attempts have failed to capture the complexity of cable system failures due to an independent analysis of multiple failure causes or influential factors. In this paper, the multiple correspondence analysis （MCA） is proposed for simultaneous analysis of multiple va- riables responsible for the cable failures and classification of cables into homogeneous groups in terms of past failure behavior. The proposed classification method is less subjective as it gives equal consideration to all the cable features. The methodology has been applied to the main cable section and cable joint failure data of a diverse population of cables ob- tained from a Chinese utility company. The failure data have six categorical variables related to cable features and failure characteristics. The application of MCA provided an enriched view and understanding of failure behavior by allowing visual exploration of the failure patterns and associations. Based on the past failures, the cable sections and joints were classified into three and four groups, respectively. The failure trend of each classified group is evaluated separately. Resuits show that failure history and trend of each classified group is different. Thus, they must be analyzed and treated differently in the forecasting or maintenance and replacement planning procedures.

关 键 词：多重对应分析法 电缆群体 故障特性 运行行为 聚类分析 分类 老化 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]