养老金支付风险预测及延迟退休作用评估——以S省为例  

The Prediction of Public Pension Payment Risk and the Effect Evaluation of Delaying Retirement Policy——An Example from S Province

作　　者：苏春红[1] 李松[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2016年第7期69-79,112,共12页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"延迟退休年龄的经济效应与公平可持续的养老保险制度研究"(批准号:15BJY182)

摘　　要：通过建立养老金精算模型,基于保险精算和会计原理,预测了S省2015-2050年企业职工养老保险收支缺口及其财政负担系数,并进一步分析了两个延迟退休方案假设对养老金缺口的影响。基准方案预测结果显示:2020年S省开始出现14.62亿元的当期缺口,2027年出现423.63亿元的累计缺口,2050年养老金基金累计缺口现值相当于2015年GDP的118.42%。延迟退休显著减少了养老金缺口数额,两个延迟退休方案假设条件下当期缺口出现的时点和金额没有改变,累计缺口在2029年开始出现,出现时间推迟了两年,2050年累计缺口分别比基准方案减少了80%和83%,表明延迟退休是一项缓解养老金支付风险的有效政策。但测算显示,延迟退休政策不能完全避免养老金支付风险的发生。Based on actuarial and accounting principles, this paper estimates public pension deficit and financial sustainability of employee＇s insurance of S province＇s enterprises between 2011 and 2050 by building a pension actuarial models, as well as the effect of two postponed retirement assumptions on the deficit. Benchmarked plan results show that a yearly pension gap of 1.462 billion and a cumulative pension gap of 42.363 billion will occur at2020 and 2027 respectively and the present value of cumulative gap will be equivalent to 126.5% of GDP at 2011 price. Delayed retirement hypotheses decrease the pension deficit obviously. Under the two postponed retirement assumptions,the cumulative gap generating two years later will reduce 80% and 83% separately compared to the benchmarked plan though timing and monetary amount of the yearly deficit will not change. This indicates that the delayed retirement policy will be effective. However, postponed retirement can＇t avoid the pension gap completely.Achieving the pension system to be equitable and sustainable development, a multi-supported and self-balanced reform with integration of power and responsibility should be needed. We also examine the pension deficit under the postponed retirement assumptions based on fertility and economic factors.

关 键 词：养老金缺口 延迟退休 支付风险 财政负担 公平可持续发展 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]