中国全口径外债的推导、变动原因及其政策启示  

China's External Debts: Calculation, Drivers and Policy Implications

作　　者：温建东[1] 

机构地区：[1]剑桥大学管理学会

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2016年第5期114-122,共9页International Economic Review

摘　　要：2015年中国跨境资金流动由顺转逆,背后因素众说纷纭。本文运用国际账户统计理论,构造了从国际投资头寸表推算的全口径外债时间系列数据,揭示了资金流出最主要是由外债去杠杆引起的。其中,人民币外债去杠杆力度远超外币外债。当前,外债去杠杆已有时日,虽消耗外汇储备,但有利于减少货币错配,而且实际上是对外资产和负债的同时减少,并不影响国际投资净头寸,各界应客观看待这一过程,中国抵御跨境资本流动冲击的能力较强。未来,开放银行间债券市场和提升央行抵御和化解外部冲击的能力。China encountered capital outflows in 2015, triggering heated debate about its causes. Basedon the 'theory of international account statistics, this article constructs time series of thecountrys full-coverage foreign debts based on the international investment position table,which reveal that the capital outflow was mainly caused by external debt deleverage and theRMB external debt deleverage far outweighed foreign currency debt. So far, the external debtdeleverage has been conducted for some time and while it has reduced foreign exchangereserves, it is conductive to reducing currency mismatch and has resulted in simultaneousreductio'n of both foreign assets and foreign liabilities. Therefore, it has not affected thecountrys net international investment position. The deleverage process should not beover-interpreted. In summary, China still boasts strong ability to withstand any impact ofcross-border capital flows. In the future, measures such as the opening the inter-bank bondmarket and RMB's accession into the SDR basket can also mitigate the effect of the externaldebt deleverage.

关 键 词：国际收支 全口径外债 国际账户统计 国际投资头寸表 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]