基于风电预测误差区间的动态经济调度  

Dynamic economic dispatch based on wind power forecast error interval

作　　者：刘立阳[1] 孟绍良[1] 吴军基[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学能源与动力工程学院,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2016年第9期87-93,共7页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51405235)~~

摘　　要：由于风电的预测值与实际值存在偏差,含风电的动态经济调度需考虑风电预测的不确定性。根据风电场的历史预测误差数据,提出利用核密度估计建立某预测值条件下的误差概率分布,并以高斯核函数为例推导了相应的误差置信区间,将动态经济调度中涉及的不确定性问题转换为确定性区间问题,降低了调度模型的复杂度。实际数据分析表明核密度估计具有较高的拟合优度,能够避免高估或低估误差。最后通过含风电场的IEEE 30节点系统仿真验证了所提方法的有效性。Since there is difference between actual and predicted values,the dynamic economic dispatch should consider the uncertainty of wind power forecast. The kernel density estimation method is applied to establish the probability distribution of forecast error based on its historical data for a particular predicted value. As an example,the corresponding error confidence intervals of Gaussian kernel function are derived to convert an uncertainty problem of dynamic economic dispatch into a problem of certain interval for reducing the complexity of dispatch model. The analysis of real data shows that,the kernel density estimation method has higher fitting level,avoiding the overestimate or underestimate of forecast error. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the simulation for IEEE 30-bus system with wind farm.

关 键 词：经济调度 风电 出力波动 预测误差 误差置信区间 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM614