基于环境库兹涅茨模型的石家庄市经济发展与空气质量关系实证研究  

Empirical study on the relation of economic development and ambient air quality in Shijiazhuang City based on the Kuznets model

作　　者：王玮[1] 强杰[1] 王烁[1] 任振科[1] 张布宇 

机构地区：[1]石家庄市环境监测中心,河北石家庄050022

出　　处：《河北工业科技》2016年第5期397-403,共7页Hebei Journal of Industrial Science and Technology

基　　金：河北省科技支撑计划项目(16273714D)

摘　　要：环境与经济协调关系的研究可以定性地反映区域环境与经济发展的综合实力水平。环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假设反映的是经济增长与环境质量之间呈现倒U型的曲线关系,通过建立模型,将石家庄市2000—2015年人均GDP与工业废气排放量及城市环境空气中3项主要污染物(SO2,NO2,PM10)等4项指标进行拟合,发现EKC曲线并不完全符合传统的倒"U"型。结果表明,石家庄市环境空气中SO2和NO2与人均GDP之间存在比较明显的三次曲线特征,整体呈现出倒"N"型,而工业废气排放量仍处于上升阶段,表现为"N"型。典型的EKC理论不适用于解释石家庄市PM10浓度的变化趋势。政策分析表明,石家庄市正处于由工业化中期向后期的过渡中,迫切需要加强大气环境治理,转变经济增长结构,提升经济增长质量,向生态宜居城市转变。The study of environmental and economic coordination can qualitatively reflect the comprehensive strength of regional environment and economic development level. Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis reflects the economic growth and environmental quality between the inverted U-shaped curve relationship. By establishing the model, it is found that the EKC curve which is fitted by Shijiazhuang City’s per capita GDP and four indicators including industrial emissions and three major pollutants （SO2, NO2, PM10 ） of urban ambient air during 2000-2015 is not fully consistent with the traditional inverted ＂U＂ form. The results show that there exists obvious cubic curve characteristics between SO2 , NO2 and per capita GDP in Shijiazhuang, and it shows a reverse ＂N＂. While industrial emission is still in the rising stage, showing a ＂N＂. Typical EKC theory is not suitable to explain the PM10 concentration change trend in Shijiazhuang. Policy analysis shows that Shijiazhuang city is transiting from middle industrialization stage to late industrialization stage, so there is an urgent need to strengthen its management of atmospheric environment, transform the structure of economic growth, and improve the quality of economic growth, in order to build the ecological livable city.

关 键 词：大气污染防治工程 环境库兹涅茨模型 经济与空气质量关系 石家庄市 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]