分析师能有效发挥专业解读信息的作用吗?——基于汉字年报复杂性指标的研究  

Can Analysts Play an Effective Role in Professional Information Interpretation?:Evidence Based on a COMPLEXITY/READABILITY Index of Chinese Corporate Annual Reports

作　　者：丘心颖[1] 郑小翠[2] 邓可斌[3] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学思科信息学院 [2]广东外语外贸大学会计学院 [3]华南理工大学经贸学院与金融工程研究中心

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2016年第3期1483-1506,共24页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划基金项目(12YJAZH103);广东省信息安全测评中心技术研发项目(GDITSEC-A-2013041);广东省自然科学基金项目(S2013010013890);广东省高层次人才培养项目的资助

摘　　要：借助汉字环境下的年报复杂性/可读性指标,研究表明:(1)年报复杂性与分析师跟进度存在显著正相关关系,说明中国分析师会积极跟进那些年报较复杂的公司;(2)年报复杂性与分析师预测信息含量不存在显著正相关关系,说明分析师未有效发挥专业解读信息作用;(3)年报复杂性与分析师预测质量不存在显著相关关系,再次说明分析师在专业解读方面作用有限。最后利用中国公平信息披露法规变革的"自然实验",发现分析师跟进年报复杂性高的公司主要源于其过度自信。By applying a measure for the complexity/readability level of Chinese annual reports,this paper provides evidences to show that：1）analysts actively follow the corporations with more complex reports;2）There is no significant positive correlation between the complexity of annual reports and the information of analysts＇reports,indicating that analysts fail to interpret the disclosed information effectively;3）the complexity of annual reports is not significantly related to the quality of the analysts＇predictions,confirming again that analysts contribute little to the interpretation of professional information.We further demonstrate the motivation of analysts following complex reports mainly arises from their overconfidence based on a quasi-natural experiment of China＇s ＂fair disclosure＂policy on the stock market.

关 键 词：分析师 年报复杂性 私有信息 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]