货币波动性对我国OFDI的诱发机制研究  

The Study of Monetary Volatilities'Effect on China's Outward FDI

作　　者：孙文莉[1] 余靖雯[1] 伍晓光[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学国际商学院 [2]中央财经大学财经研究院

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2016年第3期1581-1602,共22页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(14BGJ044);国家自然科学基金项目(71403028);北京市社会科学界联合会青年社科人才资助项目(2015SKL010);北京外国语大学规划项目(2011XG003;2013XG003);北京外国语大学"走出去"协同创新中心项目;985平台建设自主创新项目的资助

摘　　要：本文运用开放宏观一般均衡分析框架理论考察对外直接投资意愿度的货币波动效应,并就中国对50个国家(地区)2003—2011年的"货币—汇率—反倾销—对外投资"传导机制进行验证,发现在中国的实证数据背景下,确实存在有效的"从货币到对外投资"的传递机制。主要结论如下:(1)本国货币波动性增加,将显著推动中国企业对外投资意愿的形成。估计结果表明,中国的消费者跨期替代弹性可能大于1。(2)外国(地区)货币波动性加剧,将阻碍中国企业对外投资意愿的形成。特别在2009年之后,外国(地区)货币波动性负面影响更为显著。(3)在G20子样本中,对外投资的本国货币波动弹性约为OECD子样本弹性的1/3,为"发展中国家及转型经济体"子样本弹性的2倍。In this paper we adopt the new open economy macroeconomics framework to explore the effects of monetary volatilities on outward FDI.To test the propositions,we use the data of China＇s direct investment outflows to 50countries（regions）from 2003 to 2011.As the theoretical analysis expects,empirical results show that there does exist a set of induced mechanisms and pathways from monetary volatilities to China＇s outward FDI.The main conclusions are summarized as follows：by the channels of exchange rate and anti-dumping duties,monetary volatilities have significant influences on China＇s outward FDI.Especially after 2009,the negative effect of foreign monetary volatility from FDI in China is more prevailed.The elasticity for China＇s monetary volatility to outward FDI in G20 subsample is one third of that in OECD subsample and 2times of that in developing transition economies subsample,respectively.

关 键 词：货币波动性 对外直接投资 反倾销 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学] F832.6