产业政策调整与居民收入增长——以山西省为例  

Industrial Policy Adjustment and Residents' Income Growth: Taking Shanxi as A Case

作　　者：王曦璟[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学统计学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《经济问题》2016年第9期48-54,共7页On Economic Problems

基　　金：山西省研究生创新项目(2015BY40);山西省软科学项目(2013041059-02);国家社会科学基金重点项目(14ATJ003);山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目(2014335)

摘　　要：对于资源型经济转型期的山西来说,非煤产业对于增加居民收入无疑是一条重要的途径。在"十三五"开局之年,利用自然预测和规划预测的思想,规划了"十三五"期间山西非煤产业促进居民增收的政策调整路径。根据状态空间模型和动态加权GMM模型的估计,非煤产业增加值占GDP比重年增加量为1%、2%、3%时,山西省城镇和农村居民人均可支配收入平均增速将达到6.32%、7.63%、8.94%和10.26%、10.64%、11.04%。在此基础上得到的一个重要的转型政策建议是在煤炭市场低迷之时,如果转型过程中对非煤产业发展实施合理规划,可以实现促进居民增收的目的,并且该效应对农村居民增收的效果更加明显。For Shanxi,a natural-resource province,non-coal industry is undoubtedly an important way to increase residents＇ income in economic transformation period. At the beginning of 13 th Five Year Plan,it uses a thought of dynamic economics to design a policy adjustment path for non-coal industry promoting residents＇ income during 13 th Five Year. According to the estimation of State Space Model and Dynamic Weighted GMM Model,when non-coal industry value-added accounts for 1%,2%,3% of the total GDP,the average growth-rate of per capita disposable income of urban households and rural households will up to 6. 32%,7. 63%,8. 94% and10. 26%,10. 64%,11. 04% in Shanxi. An important transition policy has obtained is if the government makes rational plans for non-coal industry in a time of coal-market downturn,it can achieve the purpose of promoting the residents ＇income,and the effect on rural residents is more obvious.

关 键 词：非煤产业 居民增收 政策调整 自然预测 规划预测 

分 类 号：F201[经济管理—国民经济]