基于FTA-BN的工程安全管理决策方法研究  

Study on Decision Analysis of Safety Management in Engineering Based on FTA-BN

作　　者：王书灵[1] 袁汝华[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2016年第4期401-404,414,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项基金项目(201301055)

摘　　要：为了对工程安全管理进行全过程研究,完善工程施工安全风险管理决策过程中过度偏重预先控制的情况,基于FTA-BN组合模型,利用事先风险概率预测、事中关键因子识别和事后致因诊断的全方面管理方法,研究了工程施工安全风险事件的致险因子。最后,通过案例验证了模型的合理性与有效性,以期为工程施工安全管理决策提供依据,可在一定程度上减少安全事故的发生。In order to study the entire process of engineering safety management,improve the current construction safety risk management prevalent in pre-emphasis control in the decision-making process,based on the FTA-BN combination model,it use the all-aspect management methods,that composed by prior risk probability prediction,in-process key factor identification and ex-posed cause diagnosis.It studied on the risk factors in engineering construction safety risk events.Finally,the model is demonstrated to be scientific and effective through a case,hope to prove guidance for engineering construction safety management decision and reduce the occurrence of accidents to some extent.

关 键 词：故障树理论 贝叶斯理论 安全风险 安全管理 

分 类 号：C931.2[经济管理—管理学]