城镇化、产业结构与对外贸易——以广西与东盟为例  

On the Urbanization,Industrial Structure and Foreign Trade:Taking Guangxi and ASEAN as Example

作　　者：傅东平[1,2] 王鑫[2] 

机构地区：[1]民族地区新型城镇化研究中心,广西南宁530001 [2]广西师范学院经济与管理学院,广西南宁530299

出　　处：《广西师范学院学报（哲学社会科学版）》2016年第5期133-138,共6页Journal of Guangxi Teachers Education University：Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：广西社科基金项目"提升我国中小城镇资源集聚能力研究"(14HQ03)

摘　　要：基于2003—2013年广西与东盟贸易额比重较大的6个国家的数据,运用扩展的贸易引力模型分析了广西城镇化对广西向东盟出口和从东盟进口的贸易效应。实证结果表明,广西城镇化的推进对广西向东盟出口存在促进效应,对广西从东盟国家的进口存在抑制作用。原因在于城镇化推进过程中引起了产业结构的变化从而改变了进出口商品的需求和供给。另外,广西与东盟的GDP对双边贸易有显著的正效应,贸易距离对双边贸易存在显著负效应。最后,根据实证结果给出了有利于广西发展的相关政策建议。Based on Guangxi and the six countries of ASEAN with larger trade proportion during 2003‐2013 ,this essay used trade gravity model to analyze the influence of the urbanization in Guangxi‐ASEAN exports and imports from ASEAN trade effect in Guangxi .The empirical results show that the advance of urbanization in Guangxi promotes Guangxi’s export to ASEAN countries while Guan‐gxi’s import from ASEAN countries is inhibiting .The reason is that the advancing process of urbani‐zation has caused the change of industrial structure which changes the import and export commodity supply and demand .In addition ,Guangxi and ASEAN’s GDP has a significant positive effect on bilat‐eral trade ,w hile trade distance exists significant negative effects on bilateral trade .Finally ,the essay gives the relevant policy recommendations conducive to the development of Guangxi according to the empirical result .

关 键 词：城镇化 产业结构 广西与东盟贸易引力模型 

分 类 号：C95[社会学—民族学] F299.2