中国区域间经济波动与经济增长时滞效应分析  

Analysis on China's Regional Economic Fluctuation and Time-lag Effect of Economic Growth

作　　者：安树伟[1] 张晋晋[2] 王彦飞 

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院,北京100070 [2]中共晋城市委党校,山西晋城048000 [3]海南供销大集控股有限公司,海南海口570100

出　　处：《河北经贸大学学报》2016年第6期106-111,共6页Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"拓展我国区域发展新空间研究"(15ZDC016);北京市(2011)协同创新中心"首都经济贸易大学特大城市经济社会发展研究院"资助

摘　　要：为清晰地了解经济波动的动态影响过程及机理,通过建立多项式分布滞后模型,对我国不同区域经济波动对经济增长的滞后期进行比较分析。结果表明:全国、东部、中部、西部、东北的经济波动对经济增长的作用期限分别是3年、2年、3年、5年、3年,且对经济增长作用分别表现为促进、促进、抑制、抑制、促进。从各期影响来看,除中部一直表现为抑制经济发展外,其他地区普遍表现为从滞后2年后对经济的作用由促进转变为抑制,之后效应逐渐减弱。所以,不同区域应该充分利用彼此间经济波动的时期差,做好相应的准备,努力克服经济波动的减损效应。For a clear understanding of the dynamic effect process and mechanism of economic fluctuations, the lag periodof economic growth in different regions in China is analyzed by establishing a polynomial distributed lags model. The results show that the effect on economic growth period under economic fluctuation in the whole nation, the east, the middle, the west and the north-east is respectively 3 years, 2 years, 3 years, 5 years and 3 years, and the effect on economic growth is to accelerate, accelerate, restrain, restrain and accelerate. Taking the effect of various stages into consideration, the other regions are transforming from accelerating to restraining after the lag of 2 years, then the effect gradually weakened, besides the middle has always been restraining. Therefore, different regions should make full use of the time difference between each others＇ periods of economic fluctuations, make corresponding preparations and strive to overcome the impainnent effect .

关 键 词：经济波动 经济增长 熊彼特 经济周期理论 内生增长理论 多项分布滞后分析 动态时滞效应 区域借鉴 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]