基于组合赋权及扇形雷达图法的电网公司月度运营预警模型  

Monthly Operation Warning Model of Power Grid Corporation Based on Combination Weighting and Fan Radar Chart

作　　者：赵会茹[1] 李娜娜[1] 邢金峰[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]国网河北省电力公司,河北石家庄050000

出　　处：《中国电力》2016年第9期119-124,共6页Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71373076)~~

摘　　要：为提升电网公司运营风险的防控能力,有必要对关键的运营指标进行预警分析。在电网公司现行运营监测体系的基础上,筛选出月度运营分析的关键指标进行分析。为实现电网运营状态科学直观地预警,提出了基于主客观赋权和改进扇形雷达图法的月度运营分析预警模型,通过引入参考样本,克服传统模型无法区分优劣预警等级的问题。最后,以A省电网公司为例,对其2014年1—10月的运营状况进行预警分析,分析结果直观有效地区分不同月份运营状况所属预警区间,同时验证了模型的可行性、直观性和科学性。In order to improve operation warning of power grid corporation, it is essential to analyze key operation indicators. The key factors affecting operation warning analysis are selected from operation monitoring system of power grid corporation. The combination weighting method is applied to determine index weights. An operational analysis warning model based on an improved fan radar chart is proposed, and four reference samples are introduced to intuitively reflect the warning level. Taking a provincial corporation as an example, the operational status between January and October in 2014 are analyzed in detail. The results verify feasibility of proposed method. This work is supported by National Natural Seianee Foundation of China （No. 71373076）.

关 键 词：运营预警 运营分析 组合赋权法 扇形雷达图法 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]