日本增速换挡过程中需求结构变迁对中国的启示  

WHAT CHINA CAN LEARN FROM JAPAN IN TERMS OF THE CHANGE OF PACE IN ECONOMIC GROWTH

作　　者：魏杰[1] 白成太[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,100084

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2016年第9期70-83,共14页Economic Theory and Business Management

摘　　要：本文利用非竞争型投入产出表比较分析了日本在1955—2011年间、中国在1987—2012年间的最终需求和所诱发的产业部门对总产出增长的影响。通过分析日本从高速增长期到中速增长期、再到经济低迷期两次增速换挡过程中的需求动力变化趋势,本文认为中国在向中高速增长期的转型过程中:(1)消费作为经济增长的稳定性力量,将逐渐成为首要贡献因素,但其拉动作用将呈下降趋势,应重点发展流通服务业和工商服务业,同时应做好机械制造业和传统制造业的升级创新;(2)投资仍然是中高速增长的重要贡献因素,机械制造业对投资的重要性将上升,基础设施业对投资的重要性将下降;(3)出口对中国经济的重要性将有所回调,但仍具有较大成长空间,应重点提高机械制造业和化工业的国际竞争力。The effects of final demand and its induced industries on total output growth are compared and analyzed based on noncompetitive input-output data over 1955--2011 of Japan and over 1987--2012 of China. The trend of demand dynamics of Japan＇s economy is examined from high growth phase to medium growth phase, then to falter economy phase which includes two growth pace changes. In the transformation to medium-high growth phase of China, it casts a light on as follows： （1） Consumption will be the primary driver of economic growth as a stable factor, but has a declining trend of pulling effect. The development of circulation service industry and in- dustrial and commercial service industry should be focused on firstly, while traditional manufacturing industry and machinery manufacturing industry should be upgraded. （2） The role of investment is still of great importance to medium-high growth. The importance of machinery manufacturing industry to investment is increasing, while the importance of infrastructure industry to investment is decreasing. （3） The importance of exports to China＇s econo- my will have a pullback, but there is still much room for exports to grow. The international competitiveness of machinery manufacturing industry and chemical industry should be promoted.

关 键 词：投入产出分析 增速换挡 需求结构 

分 类 号：F131.3[经济管理—世界经济]