基于多模型结合的土地利用结构多情景优化模拟  

Multi-scenario simulation of land use structure based on dual combined models

作　　者：陈影[1] 张利[1] 何玲[1] 门明新[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学国土资源学院,保定071001

出　　处：《生态学报》2016年第17期5391-5400,共10页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家公益性基金项目(201411103);国家重点基础研究发展规划资助项目(2005CB121107)

摘　　要：土地生态服务功能的重要性越来越受到人们的重视,以河北省卢龙县为案例区,以土地生态服务功能和经济功能提升为目标,基于100 m×100 m尺度的遥感解译图像,分别利用CLUE-S及基于MOP和CLUE-S整合模型对研究区土地利用结构进行数量及空间优化模拟。结果表明:到2020年,单模型模拟的土地经济功能有所提升,但生态服务功能却减退;基于MOP和CLUE-S优化整合模型模拟的生态服务功能和经济功能分别比2013年提升8.40%及8.20%。耕地、建设用地、林地面积都有所增加,其它用地减少较多。研究表明,MOP和CLUE-S整合模型与单模型相比,到2020年土地两项功能值之和有所增加,特别是生态功能增加幅度较大,MOP和CLUE-S模型结合的优化方案优于CLUE-S单模型优化方案。Land is not only a fundamental requirement for people＇s life, but also an indispensable factor in economic development. However, utilizing land usually results in changes to the structure and function of ecological systems, which may have a notable impact on the environment and natural resources. Since the industrial revolution, the overuse and damage of land has become the main cause of a decline in ecological function and the deterioration of the environment, and has led to the loss of sustainability for the entire biosphere. Recently, the essential roles of ecological services have been recognized, and attention has been called to the ecological and economic benefits of related projects. Allocation of land use in order to optimize its spatial structure of is a prerequisite for enhancing its economic and ecological benefits. In this study, we analyzed the changes in both the structure of land use and the rules used to determine its functions from 2006 to 2013 in Lulong County, based on remote sensing data from this period. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the most influential factors and to characterize their inter-relationships and relative functions. The factors identified were examined by successfully simulating the spatial distribution of 6 land use types in Lulong. Receiver Operating Characteristic （ROC） values greater than 0.80 for the land use types categorized as：＂cultivated land,＂ ＂garden plot,＂ ＂forest,＂ ＂construction land,＂ ＂water,＂ and ＂other land＂ were observed. Following this, the land use types for Lulong County in 2020 were predicted using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small region extent （CLUE-S） model. To improve both the economic functioning and the ecological services provided by land in Lulong, Multi-objective Programming （MOP） and CLUE-S models were integrated. This integration enabled the optimization of the quantity and spatial structure of land used, through building constraint functions and conversion rules d

关 键 词：CLUE-S模型 MOP模型 土地利用 优化 卢龙县 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]