石化企业承灾体脆弱性评估研究  

Study on Vulnerability Aassessment of Hazard-affected Body in Petrochemical Enterprises

作　　者：苑静 卢丹丹[2] 阮德振[2] 刘培[2] 黄娜[2] 宋文华[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津市公安消防总队,天津300090 [2]天津工业大学环境与化学工程学院,天津300381

出　　处：《南开大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第4期89-96,共8页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Nankaiensis

基　　金：天津市科技支撑计划重点项目(10ZCGYS01600)

摘　　要：为研究石化企业的事故控制与灾害预防,从承灾体脆弱性角度分析石化事故对承灾目标的影响,构建石化企业承灾体脆弱性评估模式.该模式通过组合熵权层次分析法确定指标权重,模糊综合评价法确定脆弱等级.将该模式应用于天津某石化企业乙烯装置区中,得到脆弱性指数为0.675 3,为比较脆弱等级.针对区域内事故预防与控制的薄弱环节提出管控措施,采取管控措施后脆弱性指数降为0.596 1,为一般脆弱等级.结果表明,采取管控措施可降低区域承灾体的脆弱性,该模式可为企业采取事故控制与灾害预防措施提供决策依据.From the perspective of vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies to analyze the influencing of petrochemical accident on hazard-affected target, assessment model of vulnerability hazard-affected bodies of petrochemical enterprise was established in order to study the accident control and disaster prevention of petrochemical enterprise. The index weights are determined by combination of entropy weight AHP, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to determine the vulnerability level. Being applied the model to Tianjin ethylene plant area, the vulnerability index was 0.675 3 and fragile rank. Control measures are put forward aiming at the weak link of accident prevention and control in the area. The vulnerability index dropped to 0.596 1 and general fragile rank after control measures are taken. The results show that the control measures can reduce the vulnerability of regional hazard-affected body. The model can provide decision-making basis of accident control and disaster prevention measures for the enterprise.

关 键 词：石化企业 承灾体脆弱性 组合熵权层次分析法 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]