我国粮食高库存对粮价的影响及制度分析  

Institutional Analyses of the impact of China' s high food inventoryon the food prices

作　　者：蒋和平[1] 王爽[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所 [2]中央财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2016年第7期28-33,共6页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：2014年国家社会科学基金重大项目<基于改革视角下国家粮食安全问题研究>;编号:14ZDA041;中国农业科学院科技创新工程资助项目;编号:ASTIP-IAED02

摘　　要：我国粮食"十三连增"后,高库存问题异常突出,成为我国三大主粮收购价格出现不同程度下跌的重要原因,对粮食市场调控造成了一系列负面影响。本文通过构建粮食库存与粮食价格波动之间的动态关系,说明相对于价格库存状况能更快地反映市场供求情况。如果政府只是简单的进行价格控制,并利用库存调节来达到平稳价格的目的,那么当库存达到最大容量后,供求关系最终会通过价格的下跌体现出来。在结合分析了我国当前库存水平高企背后的制度性原因后,本文进一步提出了合理调节库存,促进形成较为完善的粮食价格机制的政策建议。After the twelve even increase in China＇s food quantity, the problem on the high inventoryis becoming prominent and turns into an important reasonwhythe declineon prices of the three staple food in China appears, which makes a series of negative effects on the regulationof food market.Through constructing the dynamic relationship between the inventory of food and the fluctuation of grain price,this paper illustrates that compared to the price, the inventory status of food can quickly reflects situation on market supply and demand.If government makes the price control simply and adjusts the inventory to achieve the purpose of making food price stable, the relationship between supply and demandwill eventually be reflected by the price dropwhen the inventory reaches the maximum capacity.After the analysis of the institutional reasons behind the high inventory levels in China, this paper puts forward policy recommendations on adjusting inventoryreasonably and making a sound food price mechanism.

关 键 词：粮食库存 粮食价格波动 粮食收储体制 粮食价格机制 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]