地下硐室群施工安全事故管控的GERT模型研究  

Research on GERT model of safety accident control in underground cavity construction

作　　者：江新[1,2] 吴园莉 徐平[1,2] 陈述[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省水电工程施工与管理重点实验室(三峡大学),湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2016年第8期157-162,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：长江科学院开放研究基金资助(CKWV2016382/KY);国家自然科学基金资助(51379110);水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室(三峡大学)开放基金资助(2016KSD20)

摘　　要：为解决现有安全管理在事故致因因素识别及管理资源分配等方面模糊的问题,引入博德事故因果连锁理论分析事故发展过程,以确定事故管控的主要环节及具体对象,并运用图示评审技术(GERT)构建地下硐室群施工安全事故管控模型。以坍塌事故为例,求解资源分配最优状况下事故管控成功的概率及时间期望。结果表明,通过预估安全管理对事故管控各坏节的作用系数,可确定上述管控模型的参数,进而运用该模型能优化安全管理资源分配,依据模型结果可评估施工安全事故的管控效率。In order to solve the problem of vagueness in the identification of accident-causing factors and the allocation of management resources in current safety management, the Bird accident causal chain theory was used to analyze the accident development process so as to determine the main aspects and specific objects of the accident control, and GERT was used to build a control model of safety accidents in underground cavity construction. A collapse accident was analyzed to work out the probability and time expectation of successful accident control with optimal resource allocation. The results show that parameters of the model can be determined by estimating the effecting coefficients of safety management in each link of accident control, and that the model can be used to optimize allocation of safety management resources and to assess control efficiency of construction accidents.

关 键 词：硐室群施工 安全事故管控 博德事故因果连锁理论 图示评审技术(GERT) 资源分配 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]