资本账户开放与利率市场化次序对宏观经济稳定性的影响  

The Impact on Macroeconomic Stability of the Sequence of Capital Account Openness and Interest Rate Liberalization

作　　者：黄志刚[1] 郭桂霞[2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院100081 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院,100029

出　　处：《世界经济》2016年第9期3-27,共25页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目(201301);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(14JZD016);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(71203026);对外经济贸易大学学科建设专项经费资助项目(XK2014121);优秀青年学者培育计划项目(2013YQ10);协同创新项目(201502YY002B);创新团队(CXTD7-05)的资助

摘　　要：本文采用动态随机一般均衡框架建立了一个小国开放经济模型,考察资本账户开放和利率市场化的先后顺序对宏观经济波动和社会福利的影响。模拟分析发现,扰动来源对金融自由化次序有重要影响。如果经济只面临国内扰动,不同改革路径对经济波动性的影响差别不大;如果经济同时还面临明显的国外扰动时,资本账户开放先行的经济波动性显著高于利率市场化先行。因此,对于一个面临各种经济扰动的开放经济,利率市场化前提下推进资本账户开放有助于保持宏观经济稳定,而资本账户开放先于利率市场化会带来宏观经济的不稳定。This paper sets up a small open economic model based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework to investigate the effect of the sequence of capital account openness and interest rate liberalization on macroeconomic stability and social welfare. The simulation analysis shows that the effect of the sequence of liberalization policies depends on the type of shocks. When the economy faces ordy domestic shocks, the sequence of liberalization has insignificant effect on output fluctuations, hi contrast, when for- eign shocks exist, opening up capital account first will lead to more significant output fluctuations than lib- eralizing the interest rate first. Therefore, when an open economy faces various shocks, it is more stable to open up capital account after interest rate liberalization.

关 键 词：资本账户开放利率市场化 资本流动 经济波动 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F832.5F124