气候变化和人类活动对三江源地区植被生产力的影响  

Impact of climatechange and human activities on vegetation productivity in the Three-River Headwaters

作　　者：李作伟[1,2,3] 吴荣军[1] 马玉平[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,江苏南京210044 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [3]天津滨海国际机场,天津300300

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2016年第3期804-810,共7页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306019);中国气象研究院基本科研业务费专项(2014Y006)资助

摘　　要：利用三江源区1982^(-2)013年18个气象台站地面观测资料、GIMMS和MODIS两个卫星源的遥感监测值,以NDVI值和周广胜模型分别计算植被生产力和气候生产力,将植被生产力与气候生产力的差值定义为人类活动影响.在分析该区域植被生产力和气候生产力变化趋势的基础上,通过分离气候变化和人类活动对植被生产力的影响,从而定量评估两者的影响大小,研究结果表明:(1)在气候变化和人类活动的叠加作用下,三江源地区植被生产力、气候生产力和人类活动影响均趋于好转,平均每10 a分别增加179 kg·hm^(-2)、154 kg·hm^(-2)和24 kg·hm^(-2);(2)气候变化是影响植被生产力的决定性因素,但人类活动在一定程度上加快了其变化速率,尤其是进入21世纪以来人类活动正面影响较为明显,气候变化和人类活动对植被生产力的贡献率分别为87%和13%.The vegetation productivity and climatic productivity were estimated by using meteorological data from 18 weather stations in the Three-River Headwaters（TRH）during 1982 to 2013 and the satellite data form GIMMS and MODIS. Moreover,the effect of human activities were analyzed by calculating difference between vegetation productivity and climate productivity. The results showed that（1）the vegetation productivity,climatic productivity and the effect of human activities all had increased in the nearly 30 years,with the changing rates of 179,154 and 24 kg · hm^-2,respectively;（2）climate change wasthe decisive factor impacting the vegetation productivity,and human activities accelerated its changing rate in the TRH. Especially,during the 21 st century,the positive impact of human activity has become more obvious,with contribution rates of climate change and human activities to vegetation productivity being 87% and 13%,respectively.

关 键 词：三江源区 植被生产力 气候生产力 人类活动影响 

分 类 号：TH774[机械工程—仪器科学与技术] P642.14[机械工程—精密仪器及机械]