天然气市场不同预期规则下的三寡头博弈模型研究  

A Study of Three Oligopolistic Firms Game Model Based on Different Expectation Rules in Natural Gas Supply Market

作　　者：杨俊[1] 张亚军[1] 张小漫 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2016年第8期7-15,共9页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71133007);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71373297);国家社会科学基金重点项目(15AZD014)

摘　　要：文章针对三寡头垄断的天然气上游(供气)市场,基于不同预期规则建立了三寡头动态博弈模型,运用混沌经济学理论求解系统均衡点并进行稳定性分析;最后利用数值模拟研究了主要参数发生变化时系统复杂的动力学行为。结果表明:不同预期规则下的三寡头博弈模型具有非常复杂的动力学特性;自适应企业对市场具有稳定效应,而有限理性企业过快的产量调整速率会导致市场进入混沌状态。A three oligopolistic firms dynamic game model based on different expectation rules was established in the upstream market of natural gas （gas supply）. The system equilibrium was calculated by chaos theory of economics and then analyzed the stability of the system. In the end, the paper analyzed the complex dynamic behavior of the system deduced by the change of main-parameters by the numerical simulation method. The results show that the game model has a very complicated dynamic behavior. Adaptive firms have a stabilizing effect on the market, and the fast output adjustment rate of limited rational firms will lead to the market to enter the chaotic state.

关 键 词：天然气 博弈模型 预期 混沌 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] F271.5