南方城区某优质水厂供水量与耗电量关系预测模型  

Prediction Model of Relationship between Water Supply and Power Consumption of A Certain Waterworks in Southern City

作　　者：梅胜[1] 袁林[1] 李冬梅[1] 黄明珠 刘贝 任毅[3] 

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学土木与交通工程学院,广东广州510006 [2]佛山市水业集团有限公司,广东佛山528000 [3]中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司,广东广州510610

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2016年第9期39-42,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51378129;51108094);广东省自然科学基金项目(2015A030313494);广东省科技计划项目(2013B020413002);禅城区产学研专项项目(2013B1007)

摘　　要：目前,关于水厂供水量与耗电量关系的定量研究较少。对此,以南方某优质水厂2012～2014年供水量和耗电量生产数据为基础,引入季节指数平滑法改进传统灰色模型,预测具有季节性周期变化的月生产数据,分别建立了出水泵耗电量、净水工艺耗电量、综合楼耗电量以及优质水厂出水泵供水量的季节-灰色预测模型。预测结果表明,四个模型精度较高且稳定性较好,对应的平均绝对误差分别为6.18%、4.82%、4.46%、6.12%,相对误差的方差分别为0.05、0.04、0.03、0.03。引入表示供水量与耗电量之间关系的特征参数即能量强度,结合各模型的计算结果预测优质水厂能量强度,建立了能量强度预测模型。结果表明,模型预测值与真实数据吻合良好,平均绝对误差为4.49%,相对误差的方差为0.03。结研究果可为优质水厂日后设备维护、更新及未来水厂二期建设提供依据。A quantitative study on the relationship between the quantity of water supply and the energy consumption is less.Based on the production data of water supply and energy consumption of a high quality water plant in the south of China,the seasonal exponential smoothing method was introduced to improve the traditional grey model and forecast the monthly production data with seasonal cycle change.The seasonal-grey forecasting models of energy consumption of water pump,the energy consumption of process of water purification,the energy consumption of official building and the quantity of water supply of the pump were established respectively.As results of the prediction,these four models had high accuracy and stability,and the corresponding mean absolute errors were 6.18%,4.82%,4.46% and 6.12%respectively,and the relative errors were 0.05,0.04,0.03 and 0.03 respectively.By introducing the characteristic parameters of the relationship between the water supply and energy consumption,the energy intensity,combined with the calculation results of the model to predict the energy intensity of high quality water plant,the relationship model of water supply and energy consumption was established.The results show that the predicted values of the model are in good agreement with the real data,the average absolute error is 4.49%,and the relative error is 0.03.The research results can provide the basis for the maintenance and renewal of the water plant and the second stage construction of the future water plant.

关 键 词：供水量 耗电量 灰色模型 季节指数 季节-灰色预测模型 能量强度 

分 类 号：TU991[建筑科学—市政工程]