基于层次分析法-正态云模型的岩质边坡稳定性预测  

Stability Evaluation of Rocky Slope Based on AHP-Normal Cloud Model

作　　者：袁爱平[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院,北京100083 [2]北京市保障性住房建设投资中心,北京100040

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2016年第9期153-156,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51174014);长江学者和创新团队发展计划项目(IRT0950)

摘　　要：鉴于边坡问题是制约工程建设的主要地质灾害问题之一,基于云模型理论,综合考虑坡高、坡度等多个影响因子,选出10项影响边坡稳定性的指标,由此计算分析各指标隶属于不同岩质边坡稳定性等级的云模型数字特征,并结合正向正态云模型和指标权重,计算待评估边坡的综合确定度,最终确定岩质边坡稳定性等级。以某水电站库岸边坡为例进行建模计算,结果表明该算法可以对边坡的稳定状态进行预测,正确率较高,为比较合理快速地分析边坡稳定性提供了一条新途径。In view of the problem that the rocky slope is one of the main geological hazards in the engineering construction,a new model of rocky slope stability evaluation was proposed in this paper based on the cloud model theory.Ten evaluation indexes influencing the stability of rock slope were selected by considering influencing factor,such as slope height and gradient.And then the numerical characteristics of each index,which belongs to different grades of the cloud model,were also calculated.Considering the weights of each index,the comprehensive degrees of certainty were obtained,and the stability grade of rocky slope was finally specified by the maximum certainty degree.The engineering application of a certain bank slope of hydropower station demonstrates that this algorithm can predict the stability state of slope with higher accuracy.So,it provides a new way for analyzing the stability of the slope.

关 键 词：岩质边坡 云模型 层次分析法 稳定性 评价 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]