教育如何影响农村劳动力转移——基于年龄与世代效应的分析  

How Education Affects Rural Labor Transition:Based on Age and Cohort Effects

作　　者：曾旭晖[1] 郑莉[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川省社会科学院农村发展研究所,四川成都610071 [2]四川大学公共管理学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《人口与经济》2016年第5期35-46,共12页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"健全城乡发展一体化的要素平等交换体制机制研究"(14ZDA033);四川省社会科学院城镇化发展专项课题"新型城镇化进程中农业转移人口市民化研究"(14CZ09);四川大学中央高校基本科研业务费研究专项项目"生命历程视角下的社会分层与健康不平等研究"(SKYB201406)

摘　　要：本研究分析了教育是如何影响农村劳动力在纯务农、兼业和纯务工之间的就业选择,以及该选择随年龄增长和世代更替的演变趋势。研究发现,教育在总体上促进了非农就业,但在不同世代的生命历程中有着不尽相同的作用机制。在较早出生的世代中,教育对兼业和纯务工的促进作用是一致的。但在晚近出生的世代中,更高的教育水平对纯务工就业有着非常显著的影响,而对兼业选择影响甚微。在老一代农民中,教育对兼业和纯务工的促进作用随年龄增长而有所减弱;而在新一代农民中,教育对纯务工的促进作用随着年龄增长而迅速加强,呈现教育的积累性优势。此外,老一代农民的生命历程中有一个从务工到务农的回归;新一代农民向非农行业转移则呈现不可逆的趋势,教育对此起到了促进作用。This study analyzes the effects of education on rural labor transition from farming to parttime or full-time non-farming work,by applying multilevel multinomial logit model based on a longitudinal data. We also take into the life course and cohort replacement account. The results show that education improves transition to non-farming work overall but the effects vary in the life course of different birth cohort. For the earlier cohorts,education has the same effects on nonfarming transition; for the later cohorts,education has much stronger effects on full-time non-farming transition when they grow older,but has little effects on part-time non-farming transition. In the long run,for the earlier cohorts,the effects of education on non-farming transition weaken a little bit; for the later cohorts,the effects of education on full-time non-farming transition get stronger and then show an accumulative advantage. In addition,we find a regression from non-farming to farming in the life course of earlier cohorts. For the later cohorts,the transition to non-farming work looks like an irreversible trend,facilitated by education significantly.

关 键 词：农村劳动力转移 教育 世代效应 多层多项Logit模型 

分 类 号：F304.6[经济管理—产业经济]