我国土地利用动态监测的耕地保护效果评价  

Arable Land Conservation Effects of Land Use Dynamic Monitoring in China

作　　者：金雨泽 徐智颖[1] 钟太洋[1,2,3] 黄贤金[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210023 [2]南京大学江苏省土地开发整理技术工程中心,南京210023 [3]无锡南大国土资源研究中心,江苏无锡214001

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2016年第5期120-123,共4页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271190)

摘　　要：为了对耕地保护技术层面措施进行定性定量研究,测度土地利用动态监测在省级层面的耕地保护效果,以1999—2008年省级面板数据为基础,借助STATA软件分别通过聚类稳健标准差下固定效应模型、随机效应模型和混合OLS模型进行估计,选择最优拟合结果。F检验,B-P检验,Hausman检验显示固定效应模型拟合结果最优,以该模型对土地利用动态监测的耕地保护效果进行测度。结果表明:土地利用动态监测的实行对减少耕地面积下降有显著作用;土地利用动态监测比率每提高1%,能减少耕地流失188.05 hm2;从土地利用动态监测耕地保护效率来说4个直辖市要高于其他省份。This study aimed to evaluate the arable land conservation effects of land use dynamic monitoring, which was regarded as a technological approach, on provincial level quantitatively and qualitatively. Based on the panel data collected from 1999 to 2008, this article applied fixed-effects model, random-effect model and pooled OLS model to estimate the question. After testing the results, the fix-effect model was finally chosed to explain the question. On that basis, this paper estimated the effect of dynamic monitoring of land use in arable land conserva-tion and the results are as follows ： The implementation of dynamic monitoring technology of land use does contribute to the decline in land loss and every 1% increase in the dynamic monitoring rate of land use will bring a 188.05 hm2 decline in land loss. As for arable land conservation efficiency of dynamic monitoring of land use, those of the four centrally administered municipalities in China shows a higher rate than that of other provinces and municipalities.

关 键 词：耕地保护绩效 土地利用动态监测 面板模型 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]