统计降尺度在AREM模式洪水预报试验中应用初探  

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING IN AREM MODEL FLOOD FORECASTING

作　　者：殷志远[1] 李俊[1] 胡小梅[2] 彭涛[1] 杨芳[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430205 [2]湖北省漳河工程管理局,湖北荆门448100 [3]湖北省气象信息与技术保障中心,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2016年第9期1466-1474,共9页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：湖北省气象局科技发展重点基金(2015Z02);灾害天气国家重点实验室基金(2014LASW-B09)

摘　　要：利用2006-2008年AREM模式预报降雨和漳河水库逐小时雨量站观测降雨及入库流量资料,对水库流域进行网格划分,建立了基于网格的空间分辨率分别为（0.25°×0.25°）和（0.5°×0.5°）的降雨预报统计降尺度模型,同时对降尺度模型了进行了模拟效果的检验,证明该降尺度模型的计算结果可以用于漳河水库洪水预报试验。从2009-2010年中选取了4次洪水过程,进行个例试验,试验结果表明,统计降尺度模型对洪水过程效率系数的改进效果不明显,但对减小预报洪峰流量相对误差有一定的效果,平均相对误差降低了10%左右,峰现时差也略有减小。Using AREM model of precipitation forecasting, hourly precipitation data of the Zhanghe reservoir station and the reservoir inflow data from the 2006 to 2008, a statistical downscaling model of forecasting precipitation was established based on the grids at the spatial resolutions of 0.25° and 0.5°. At the same time, the simulation result of statistical downscaling model are carried out. The results showed that the proposed method can be used in the flood forecasting of Zhanghe reservoir. From the 2009 to 2010, four prediction experiments were carried out, and the results showed that the statistical downscaling model was not good at improving flood process efficiency, but there was a certain effect to reduce the peak flow forecasting relative error, the average relative error was reduced by about 10%, the peak time error was slightly decreased, too.

关 键 词：统计降尺度 洪水预报 AREM模式 新安江模型 

分 类 号：S4[农业科学—植物保护]