中国—东盟贸易开放与金融发展的互动关系——基于面板门限模型的实证分析  

The Bilateral Relationship between Trade Openness and Financial Development in China-ASEAN:Based on the Panel Threshold Model Analysis

作　　者：刘方[1] 胡小丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2016年第4期39-47,共9页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：云南省科技厅应用基础研究青年项目(批准号:2015FD017);云南师范大学博士科研启动项目(批准号:140082)的资助

摘　　要：通过系统阐释贸易开放与金融发展互动影响机制，利用中国和东盟10国1995～2013年的面板数据及子样本数据进行检验，并分别以贸易开放、金融发展为门限变量对贸易开放与金融发展的非线性关系进行考察。结果表明，整体上贸易开放与金融发展具有明显的双向促进作用，过度的金融开放不利于金融发展和贸易开放，制度质量的作用则取决于贸易开放和金融发展水平。因此，推进贸易开放与金融发展必须渐进审慎地开放金融业和建立、健全完善的制度保障体系。This paper systematically illustrates that interaction mechanism between trade openness and financial development which has been examined by utilizing the panel data and sub-sample data of 10 ASEAN countries and China during the period of 1995-2013, and investigates nonlinear relationship of trade openness and financial development by considering both of them are threshold variable. The result shows that trade openness and financial development in general could enhance each other, excessive financial openness is not conducive to financial development and trade openness, the role of institutional quality depends on level of trade openness and degree of financial development. Therefore, pushing trade openness and financial development must to gradually open financial industry, and build complete institutional security system.

关 键 词：贸易开放 金融发展 面板门限模型 动态最小二乘估计 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]