农户种植决策感知与行为决策差异分析——基于江汉平原的实证研究  

Differences between farmers' perception and behavior decisions on crop planting: An empirical study of Jianghan Plain

作　　者：黄玛兰 李晓云[1] 袁梦烨 刘念[1] 张翅 罗碧霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉市蔡甸区成功现代都市农业发展区管委会,湖北武汉430108

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2016年第5期892-901,共10页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71203073);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(12YJC630105)~~

摘　　要：以江汉平原为例,基于行为理论在农户行为决策研究中的应用,采用二元Logistic回归模型分析影响农户作物种植决策的因素,并比较分析了农户作物选择决策感知与决策行为之间的差异及其原因。结果表明,行为意愿对行为有很强的预测作用。农户感知重要的经济效益、产量保障及家庭财富因素对农户种植决策行为影响显著;农户感知不重要的种植技术及种植补贴因素对农户种植决策行为影响不显著。但样本中农户作物选择决策感知与实际决策影响因素不一致的现象也普遍存在。农户感知重要的灌排条件因素未通过农户行为决策模型显著性检验;并且感知与行为决策显著性因子的重要性排序存在较大差异。因此,在农户感知与行为决策存在差异的情况下,政府在引导种植结构调整时不仅要注重行为决策的影响,更要深入了解农户种植结构调整偏好及调整意愿,促使农户偏好及意愿与行为决策在更大程度上达成一致,让农户在种植结构调整中获得更大满足感和幸福感。This case study derived from the behavior theory, and focused on farmers’ perception and action gaps for crop changes. A Logistic regression model was used to analyze the factors that affected farmers’ crop planting decision, and which had been compared to the perceived factors identiifed by an earlier survey. Results showed that behavioral intention had a strong predictive effect on farmers’ behaviors, and inconsistencies between farmers’ perception and crop planting action had been observed as well. Important factors such as economic beneifts, crop production and family wealth imposed a signiifcant impact on farmers’ decision making; and some perceived unimportant factors, including planting technology and subsidies, consistently had little impact on farmers’ crop decisions. Perceived important factors, irrigation system, had no effects on farmers’ crop decisions. There were gaps of the relative importance for the factors affecting farmers’ perception and behavior decision. In consideration of those differences the government should not only pay attention to the decision-making behaviors, but also to farmers’ preferences and willingness to crop decisions, thus increase consistency between farmers’ perception and their behaviors which may enhance the satisfaction and happiness of farmers during decision making process.

关 键 词：作物选择 感知 行为决策 农户 

分 类 号：F326.1[经济管理—产业经济]