突发地质灾害应急预案建构模式研究  

Study on formulating mode of emergency plan for unexpected geological disaster

作　　者：张小趁[1] 陈红旗[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北科技学院安全工程学院,北京101601 [2]国土资源部地质灾害应急技术指导中心,北京100081

出　　处：《人民长江》2016年第18期1-4,10,共5页Yangtze River

基　　金：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项"突发地质灾害应急响应支撑关键技术研究"(201211055)

摘　　要：我国现有的突发地质灾害应急预案存在结构性缺陷和实效性不足等问题。以预案执行实践为基础,研究提出预案建构的情景-结构-功能模式,建立了政策与技术2个层次的预案概念体系,提出包括情景建构、目标设定、机制优化、方案设计和推演优化等在内的预案编制五步法,初步建立了预案综合评估模型;并对《国家突发地质灾害应急预案》进行了评估,提出了修编建议。认为预案优化的实质是回答目标与情景是否吻合、能力与目标是否匹配、预案功效是否最优。The current emergency plan for unexpected geological disasters in China still has many problems,such as structural deficiencies and inadequate effectiveness. Based on implementation practices of the plan,we first proposed a scene- structure-function mode for emergency plan,and established a conceptual system including policy and technical levels. The five- step formulation process of the plan is proposed,including scene- construction,goal setting,mechanism optimization,program design and deduction optimization. Finally,we preliminary established a comprehensive assessment model for the plan,assessed National Emergency Plan for Unexpected Geologic Disasters,and put forward some revision suggestions. We believe that the core of emergency plan optimization is to answer three questions： whether the target is consistent with the scenes; whether the ability matches with the goal; whether the emergency plan efficacy is maximal.

关 键 词：应急预案 建构模式 结构功能论 地质灾害 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]