唐代华北降水与黄河下游河道决溢的相关性分析  

Correlation Analysis of Precipitation in North China and Dike Breach in Low er Yellow River in Tang Dynasty

作　　者：龚俊文 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2016年第7期24-29,共6页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点研究项目(13AZD033)

摘　　要：通过数理统计、线性回归分析以及GIS空间分析等方法,研究了唐代黄河下游河道的决溢与华北地区的降水之间的相关性。从年代分布上来看,二者在公元698—838年这一时段内的线性相关性很强,黄河决溢次数累计值与降水等级平均值的变化趋势基本一致。从季节分布上来看,二者多发生于夏秋之季,伏秋汛期时华北地区的集中降水使得黄河下游河道径流量增加而引发决溢。从地域分布上来看,唐代黄河下游河道的决溢多发生于华北地区降水集中且降水等级偏高的区域,尤其是支流汇入段与河口段。The relevance between dike breaches in lower Yellow River and pre- cipitation in north China in Tang Dy- nasty were researched by using some certain methods, such as mathematical statistics, linear regression analysis and GIS space analysis. From the perspective of period distribution, there existed a great linear correlation between the two, and trends of cumulative value of dike breaches and average value of precipita- tion level were almost unanimous during the year of 698 to 838 AD. From the perspective of season distribution, both of them were more likely to happen in summer and autumn because when the flood season came, the rainfall in north China was so concentrating that the runoff of lower Yellow River increased which eventually triggered the dike breaches. From the perspective of geo- graphical distribution, the dike breaches in lower Yellow River were more likely to occur in the areas of north China in which concentrated rainfall and a little high level of precipitation happened, es- pecially the confluence segments of trib- utaries and mainstreams and the estuary segments.

关 键 词：唐代 华北降水 黄河决溢 相关性 

分 类 号：K928.42[历史地理—人文地理学]