中国收入分布演化实证及机制研究  

Variation Process of Chinese Income Distribution and Its Mechanism Analysis

作　　者：许研[1] 王有贵[2] 

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学经济管理学院,北京石景山区100144 [2]北京师范大学系统科学学院,北京海淀区100875

出　　处：《电子科技大学学报》2016年第5期845-853,共9页Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61174165);北京市组织部优秀人才项目(2013D005002000006)

摘　　要：已有工作发现1998～2002年期间的中国收入分布呈现幂律分布特征。利用1988、1995年China Household Income projects两次调查数据进一步检验了幂律出现前收入分布的演化过程；并确定了幂律尾出现的时间为20世纪90年末期。经济分析表明这一时期主要的收入影响因素是资本收入的出现。因此在Gibra模型的框架下，增加了部分群体遵循资本收入变动特点的假设。仿真结果的短期收入分布呈现两段式lognormal分布，长期收入分布尾端呈现幂律分布。这表明资本收入是收入分布形式发生演化的重要条件。Power law distribution has been found in China with income data from 1998 to 2002 previously. With data from China Household Income Projects taken in 1988 and 1995, the distribution＇s evolution procedure before power-law is studied, and power-law distribution is identified occurred in the late 90s. Economical analysis reveals a fact that the major changes of residuals income during this period are the emergence of Capital income. Accordingly, Gibrat＇s model is modified by assuming a proportion of agents whose income changes with the features of capital income. Simulation results present two-segmental lognormal distribution in short term and power-law distribution in long term. It verifies that capital income is a main element to cause the variation of Chinese income distribution.

关 键 词：分布演化实证 Gibrat模型 个人收入 幂律分布 

分 类 号：O231.5[理学—运筹学与控制论]