台湾加入RCEP与TPP的经济效应分析——基于GTAP模型的模拟结果  

On Economic Effect of RCEP and TPP in Taiwan——Base on the Simulation of GTAP Model

作　　者：邓利娟[1,2] 侯丹丹 黄燕萍[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]两岸关系和平发展协同创新中心,福建厦门361005 [2]厦门大学台湾研究中心,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2016年第4期21-28,共8页Taiwan Research Journal

基　　金：福建省社会科学规划项目"台湾参与亚太区域经济合作的效应研究"(K34036);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"海峡两岸民间社会桥接模式和路径研究"(13JJD810011)和"福建自由贸易试验区与台湾自由经济示范区对接合作研究"(15JJD810004);国家社科基金重大项目"丰富‘一国两制’实践和推进祖国统一研究"(13&ZD052)

摘　　要：运用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)从宏观经济和产业发展两个层面对台湾加入RCEP和TPP的经济效应进行定量评估。研究发现,台湾既加入RCEP又加入TPP可以最大程度地促进其经济增长与产业结构优化;在二者不能兼得的情况下,台湾加入RCEP比加入TPP更有利于其经济增长和产业竞争;若二者都未加入,台湾的经济将持续恶化,传统优势产业将遭受巨大冲击。基于此,根据台湾自身现状及国际局势,台湾参与区域经济整合的合理路径应为"先两岸、后周边、再RCEP、最后TPP"。Using the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project this paper makes a quantitative assessment of the economic effect of RCEP and TPP in Taiwan from the perspective of the macro-economy and industrial development. Findings show that the RCEP and TPP that Taiwan joins can greatly promote its economic growth and optimize its industrial structure. On the other hand, if Taiwan becomes a member of RCEP it will prove to be more conducive to its economic growth and industrial competi- tion than a member of TPP. However, the failure to join the both will possibly continue to deteriorate its economy and its tradi- tional competitive industries will suffer a huge impact. Therefore, in terms of the Taiwan current situation and the international economic structure＇ this paper argues that the reasonable path that Taiwan is supposed to take in participating in regional economic integration should be the ＂Cross-Strait first, neighboring second, then RCEP and finally TPP＂.

关 键 词：台湾 RCEP TPP GTAP 经济效应 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]