基于部分可观察马尔可夫决策过程的机电装备动态可靠性评价方法  

Dynamic Reliability Assessment Method Based on POMDP for Electromechanical Equipment

作　　者：张红旗[1,2] 邵晓东[1] 胡祥涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安电子科技大学,西安710071 [2]中国电子科技集团公司第三十八研究所,合肥230088

出　　处：《中国机械工程》2016年第18期2482-2486,2493,共6页China Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国防技术基础项目(JSZL2014210B001;JSBZ2014210A005;JSBZ2014210B007);国防基础科研项目(A1120131044)

摘　　要：针对机电装备运行维护问题,提出了基于部分可观察马尔可夫决策过程(POMDP)理论的动态可靠性评价方法。该方法将可靠性动态演变看成POMDP问题,通过不完全观测到的设备运行信息(如噪声、温度、压力等),对可靠性状态进行估计,同时分析不同的维修行为对可靠性水平的影响规律,构建了基于状态转移的动态可靠性评价模型。然后,提出了以最小化维修成本费用和潜在故障危害为目标的维护策略制定方法,并通过案例分析验证了该方法的有效性,实现了机电装备动态可靠性的有效评价与维护策略的科学制订。This paper focused on the operation and maintenance problems of electromechanical equipment,and proposed a new approach to assess the reliability and formulate the maintenance strategies based on POMDP theory.In the new approach,the dynamic reliability of electromechanical equipment was considered as an uncertain state which might be estimated by the monitoring informations（such as noise,pressure,temperature,vibration,et al.）according to POMDP theory.Furthermore,the influences of different maintenance strategies on reliability level of electromechanical equipment were investigated,and a dynamic reliability model was developed based on state transition.In order to plan the optimal maintenance strategy,an evaluation function was defined by minimizing the maintenance costs and the lost of faults.The experimental results confirm that the new approach based on POMDP is reasonable for electromechanical equipment,and possesses application and dissemination values.

关 键 词：可靠性评价 维护策略 POMDP 机电装备 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]