石羊河流域农户对气候变化的感知及其影响因素  

Farmers' Perception and Its Influence Factors of Climate Change in the Shiyang River Basin

作　　者：雒丽[1] 赵雪雁[1] 王亚茹[1] 张钦[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2016年第4期1171-1181,共11页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41361106);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-11-0910);甘肃省高校基本科研业务费项目

摘　　要：农户对气候变化的感知是影响其选择有效适应策略的关键因素。基于农户调查数据,构建了农户对气候变化的感知度指数,分析了石羊河流域农户对气候变化的感知特征,并采用多元线性回归法分析了影响农户气候变化感知的关键因素。结果表明:(1)石羊河流域农户对气温的感知比较准确,但对降水的感知出现偏差,农户对干旱、沙尘暴的感知强度明显高于其他气象灾害;(2)农户对气候变化的严重性感知较强,大部分农户认为气候变化对其生计产生了严重影响;(3)农户感知到的气候变化适应功效及适应成本均较高,但感知到的自我效能较弱;(4)影响气候变化敏感性感知的关键因素为户主受教育水平、务农年限、气候变化信息获取渠道;影响气候变化严重性感知与适应成本感知的关键因素均为户主性别、受教育水平及与村民的交流频率;影响适应功效感知的关键因素为与村民的交流频率;影响自我效能感知的关键因素为户主受教育水平。Farmers＂ perception of climate change is a critical factor affecting the choice of adaptation meas- ures. Based on 491 household survey data and farmers＇ perceptions indices of climate change, this paper an- alyzes the characteristics of farmers＇ perceptions of climate change in the Shiyang River Basin. Perceptions of climate change include risk perception and adaptive perception. The risk perception include sensitivity perception and severity perception, and the adaptive perception include adaptation efficacy perception, self- efficiency perception and adaptation costs perception. Using multiple linear regression method to analysis the key factors influencing farmers＇ perception of climate change. The results show： （1） Farmers＇ risk per- ception of climate change in the Shiyang River Basin is strong. Most farmers perceived the temperature in- crease, this situation is consistent with the trends of climate change in 1963--2012 in the Shiyang River Ba- sin. And most farmers perceived the precipitation reduction, this situation does not comply with the trends of climate change in 1963- 2012 in the Shiyang River Basin. Most farmers perceived drought and dust storms increase, and farmers＇ perception of increased drought is the strongest, followed by the perception of increased dust storms. In comparison, the perception of temperature increase and reduced precipitation of upstream farmers is stronger than the perception of middle and lower reaches, but the perception of in- creased drought and dust storms of the middle and lower reaches farmers is stronger than the perception of upstream farmers. In addition, most farmers already perceived the seriousness of climate change and its im- pacts in the Shiyang River Basin. （2） Farmers＇ adaptive perception of climate change in the Shiyang River Basin is relatively weak. In comparison, the adaptation efficacy perception and costs perception to climate change of the middle and lower reaches farmers is stronger than the perception of upstream famers, bu

关 键 词：石羊河流域 农户 气候变化 感知 

分 类 号：C912.6[经济管理]