基于变系数回归模型的三峡库区滑坡位移预测  

Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on Varying Coefficient Regression Model in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

作　　者：喻孟良[1,2] 梅红波[3] 李冀骅 赵慧[2] 吴润泽[5] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学信息工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国地质环境监测院,北京100081 [3]中国地质大学资源学院,湖北武汉430074 [4]中国地质大学计算机学院,湖北武汉430074 [5]三峡库区地质灾害防治工作指挥部,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《地球科学（中国地质大学学报）》2016年第9期1593-1602,共10页Earth Science-Journal of China University of Geosciences

基　　金：三峡库区地质灾害预警指挥系统数据仓库及管理系统建设项目(No.SXJC-3ZH1B1)

摘　　要：降雨-库水联合作用影响着三峡库区滑坡,而降雨、库水分别对滑坡演化的贡献及作用规律迄今尚不明确.以库区树坪滑坡和八字门滑坡为例,通过分析降雨和库水位资料,采用变系数回归模型,对滑坡位移进行预测.实验结果表明:经过改进的变系数回归模型方法不仅比传统的线性回归模型、自回归积分滑动平均模型、支持向量机模型方法具有更高的预测精度,而且能定量地给出各影响因素对滑坡位移的贡献.Landslides in Three Gorges reservoir area are affected by both the rainfall and the reservoir water, but their respective contri- bution and the laws of the landslide evolution remain unclear. In this paper, we analyzed the rainfall and water level data, and applied a varying coefficient regression model for landslide displacement prediction taking Shuping landslide and Bazimen landslide in the reservoir area as the study area. The results of experiments show that the improved varying coefficient regression model is not only more accurate than traditional linear regression model, auto-regressive Integrated moving average model and support vector mchine model, but also it can give quantitative contribution of each factor on the landslide displacement.

关 键 词：三峡库区 降雨 库水 变系数回归模型 滑坡位移预测 数字模型. 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]