“一带一路”建设与中国出口效率提升——基于面板数据随机前沿引力模型的实证研究  

“The Belt and Road”Construction and the Promotion of Chinese Export Efficiency——Empirical Research Based on Panel Data Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

作　　者：付韶军[1] 

机构地区：[1]外交学院,北京100037

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2016年第10期63-71,共9页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金一般项目"对外开放;互联互通与‘一带一路’沿线省市TFP增长研究"(项目编号:3162015ZYQB01);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金重点项目"博弈论在外交决策中应用研究--基于经济外交的视角"(项目编号:3162013ZYKB01)

摘　　要："一带一路"是深化改革开放、谋求共同发展的重大战略,国际贸易是重要的桥梁和纽带。本文采用基于面板数据随机前沿引力模型,对"一带一路"沿线国家进行实证分析,实证结果表明,GDP、总人口、中国对外投资、中国从各国进口、是否签订自由贸易协定、是否陆地接壤等指标均对中国出口产生正向效应,距离对中国出口产生负向效应。我们应该加快贸易通道建设,稳步推进"设施联通";适当扩大对沿线国家的进口,发挥引领带动作用;积极参与自由贸易区谈判,提升双边贸易深度;加大对沿线国家的投资与开发,加强"政策沟通"。＂The Belt and Road＂is a significant strategy to deepen reform and open up,seeking common development,international trade is an important bridge and link. In this paper,we apply empirical analysis method to research 69 countries along＂The Belt and Road＂with the panel data stochastic frontier gravity model. The empirical results show that,GDP,population,China＇ s outward foreign direct investment,China＇ s import from other countries,the sign of a free trade agreement and whether have the land border with China,these indicators have positive effect on China＇ s export,the distance between the capital of two countries has a negative effect on Chinese export. We should accelerate the construction of trade channels,steady progress ＂Facilities Unicom＂; expand imports from countries along ＂The Belt and Road＂ appropriately,and play the leading role; participate in negotiations on free trade agreement actively,enhance the depth of bilateral trade; increase investment and development,strengthen policy communication.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 随机前沿模型 出口效率 引力模型 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]