低碳示范城市情景仿真模型研究  

Study on a Scenario Simulation Model for the Low-Carbon Demonstration City

作　　者：房劲 蒲刚清[2] 刘贞[2] 

机构地区：[1]国网重庆市电力公司人力资源部,重庆400015 [2]重庆理工大学工商管理学院,重庆400054

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（自然科学）》2016年第9期66-72,共7页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71573026);重庆电力公司科技项目(SGTYHT/15-JS-191)

摘　　要：为了有效落实碳减排目标,理清各种减排途径的碳减排潜力,给出了应优先发展的行业、领域及技术,提出了一种基于行业的考虑技术进步、技术替代和碳减排成本的低碳示范城市情景仿真模型。该模型考虑技术进步对单位GDP碳排放强度的影响、技术替代对行业整体水平的影响及不同时期碳减排成本对碳减排技术实施的影响。系统包括基本设置、基准期设置、情景参数设置和情景输出四大模块,可在调查、分析获得的各类技术碳减排潜力、投资成本和技术结构数据的基础上,通过设置观察期、GDP增长和产品需求增长预测,分析各类技术对城市减排潜力的贡献度和城市碳排放总量的变化趋势。给出了一个碳减排情景仿真案例,对不同情景下的碳排放总量、碳减排潜力及投资总量进行分析。In order to effectively implement carbon emission reduction targets,and to clear carbon emission reduction potential of channels of various emission reduction, and the priority to the development industry and technology were given,and demonstration of carbon simulation model of urban scenario was proposed considering the advances in technology,technology substitution and carbon abatement costs. This simulation models take into account technological progress on the unit of carbon emissions intensity of GDP,the overall level of technical substitution effect on the industry andthe different times of the carbon abatement costs of carbon abatement technology implementation.System includes four modules of the basic settings,set the base period,scenarios and scenario output parameters,and it can investigate and analyze access to a variety of technical carbon emission reduction potential,investment cost and technology on the basis of structural data,by setting the observation period,GDP growth and product demand growth forecast,and analyze the potential of various emission reduction technologies for the contribution of cities and urban trends in carbon emissions. A simulation of carbon reduction case scenario to do a rough estimate of total emissions,carbon reduction potential and aggregate investment under different circumstances was shown.

关 键 词：技术进步 碳减排 低碳城市 情景分析 

分 类 号：TV139[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学] TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]