基于层次分析法的水利PPP项目风险评价  

Research on Risk Evaluation of Water Conservancy PPP Project Based on AHP

作　　者：汪国懋 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,南京211100

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（自然科学）》2016年第9期156-160,共5页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271107)

摘　　要：由于PPP(public-private partnerships)项目和水利基础设施的本身特点,水利基础设施PPP项目面临着比传统融资模式更多的风险,使得水利PPP项目建设和运营的等阶段的不确定性增大。通过分析影响水利PPP项目的风险因素,构建了宏观、中观和微观3个层次的风险指标体系,运用层次分析法确定各影响因素的权重,分析了影响项目风险的主要因素,提出加强风险管控等相关建议,有利于构建适合我国的水利基础设施风险评估框架,合理控制水利项目的风险。As a result of the PPP project and water conservancy infrastructure＇s characteristic,water conservancy PPP project is facing more risk than the traditional financing model,which makes the water conservancy construction and operation of the PPP project increase uncertainty. This paper analyzed the factors influencing risk factors of the water conservancy PPP project,and built three levels of risk index system,named the macro,meso and micro,using the analytic hierarchy process（ AHP） to determine the weight of each influence factor,and analyzed the main factors that influencing the project risk. Finally,we put forward to some suggestions,which is not only beneficial to build for our country ＇s water conservancy infrastructure framework of risk assessment,but also could do some good to control the risk of water conservancy project.

关 键 词：PPP 水利项目 层次分析法 风险评价 

分 类 号：O21[理学—概率论与数理统计]