中国跨越中等收入陷阱：基于五大发展理念视角  

China Striding Across Middle Income Trap: From the Perspective of Five Developmental Concepts

作　　者：胡鞍钢[[1,2] 任皓[1] 鲁钰锋[1] 周绍杰[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 [2]清华大学国情研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2016年第5期62-73,共12页Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“经济转型过程中的收入分配与储蓄倾向:实证证据与政策含义”(71273006)

摘　　要："十二五"以来,随着中国经济增长率下行,中国是否会落入"中等收入陷阱"成为判断中国经济增长前景的关键词。"十三五"时期,中国的核心任务是"全面建成小康社会",同时也要为2025年左右实现跨越"中等收入陷阱"、进入高收入发展阶段奠定发展基础。根据当前中国经济社会发展所面临的重大问题,我们识别出影响我国跨越"中等收入陷阱"的五大挑战,即全要素生产率挑战、城镇化挑战、生态环境挑战、被动依附型挑战和不平等挑战。而实行"创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享"五大发展理念就是成功应对上述五大挑战的战略指引和基本途径,是实现跨越"中等收入陷阱"的关键。因此,特别强调,切实推进国家治理体系与治理能力现代化,避免政治上犯"颠覆性错误",构筑稳定的政治和社会环境,是成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"的政治条件。With the economic slow down in the period of the 12 th Five year Plan( FYP),the term of middle income trap has become the keyword to predict Chinas economic prospect. In the 13 rd FYP,the core task for Chinas development is to accomplish the construction of a well-being society. Meanwhile,China needs to enhance the foundation for its development,in order to realize the breakthrough of the middle income trap around 2025 and enter into the development stage of high income. Based on the major problems of Chinas socioeconomic development,we identify five main challenges that may endanger China to fall into the middle income trap,namely,total factor productivity challenge,urbanization challenge,ecological and environmental challenge,passive dependency challenge and inequality challenge. This paper argues that the five developmental concepts,including the innovation driven development,coordinated development,green development,opening-up development and sharing development,are the strategic and methodological guidelines to cope with the five challenges and the key to avoid middle income trap. In particular,this paper emphasizes some preconditions for successfully coping with the five challenges and smoothly surpassing the middle income trap,such as advancing the modernization of state governance system and governance capacity,avoiding subversive mistakes in politics and constructing stable social and political environments.

关 键 词：中等收入陷阱 “十三五”规划 五大发展理念 国家治理能力 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]