基于住房保障收入线的河北省保障性住房需求量预测研究  

Forecast of the Demand for Indemnificatory Housing in Hebei Province Based on the Income Line of Housing Security

作　　者：牟玲玲[1] 吕丽妹 贾清[2] 安楠[1] MU Ling-ling LU Li-mei JIA Qing AN Nan(School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China School of Humanities and Law, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院 [2]河北工业大学人文与法律学院

出　　处：《河北工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第3期25-32,共8页Journal of Hebei University of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(14BJY060);河北省软科学研究计划项目(14456110D);河北省社会科学基金项目(HB15GL108);河北省自然科学基金(G2015202274)

摘　　要：为妥善解决河北省保障性住房供需矛盾,构建一个更为成熟完善的河北省城镇居民住房保障体系,以河北省城市住房建设为例,采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,提出预测城市住房保障收入线和测定保障比例的方法。并在此基础上,求得2016-2021年城市分类家庭收入、需要住房保障的城镇人口数的比例、人均住宅建筑面积水平,进一步动态测得公共租赁房、经济适用房和限价商品房的需求量及保障房总量,为河北省的保障性住房规划和政府制定相关决策提供了依据。In order to properly resolve the contradiction between supply and demand oflndemnificatory housing, and establish a more mature and perfect housing security system in Hebei province, this paper puts forward a method to predict the income line of urban housing security and the measure for determining the proportion of security by combining qualitative and quanti- tative analysis. And then, classified household income, the proportion of urban population who needs housing security, and per capita residential housing construction area in 2016-2021 were calculated. Demand of public rental housing, affordable housing, price-restricted commercial housing, and the total were estimated. The paper provides the basis for Hebei province government about indenmificatory housing plan and decision making.

关 键 词：保障性住房 预测模型 保障房需求 

分 类 号：F293.33[经济管理—国民经济]