中国长期经济增长的数量特征  

Quantitative Characteristics of China's Long-range Economic Development

作　　者：宋旭光[1] 何宗樾[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学统计学院,北京100875

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第5期182-194,共13页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"中国能源-环境-经济综合核算体系研究"(11&ZD045);国家社科基金一般项目"我国税源核算的统计体系与应用研究"(11BTJ005)

摘　　要：中国经济增长取得了举世瞩目的成就。准确认识中国长期经济增长的数量特征有助于全面理解和准确应对当前中国经济增长过程中的新问题和挑战。本文在中国经济进入新常态的大背景下,从中国长期经济发展的阶段特征分析入手,从劳动力供给变化、资本效率变化、全要素生产率与要素贡献率变化和潜在增长率变化等方面分析了中国经济增长新的常态特征,并基于新古典经济增长模型,通过情境模拟对要素投入型增长以及效率—创新驱动型增长模式进行模拟和估算。在此基础上,本文对中国未来经济增长问题进行了分析和预测。结果表明,中国进入经济新常态是经济发展的必然趋势,未来十年是中国跨越中等收入陷阱的关键时期,在此过程中,中国将保持经济持续增长和平稳运行的总体特征。Based on the remarkable achievements of the economic growth on a long-term basis,China＇s development is in a new normal state.Deliberating quantitative characteristics could be an effective resolution to handling new development issues.This paper analyzes the new characteristics of China＇s economic growth from the perspective of labor supply,capital efficiency,TFP,factor contribution,and potential growth rate under the baseline new classical growth framework by conducting scenario analysis of two growth models,that is,factor-driven and innovation-driven growth models.The study was conducted in the context of China＇s new normal economy through the analysis of stage characteristics of China＇s long-term economic development.It turned out that sustainable growth and smooth running would be the general characteristic of China＇s economic situation.The upcoming decade will be a critical period to span the middle-income trap.

关 键 词：经济增长 新常态 数量特征 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]