基于AHP的石油管服役性能试验系统动态风险评价  

Dynamic Risk Assessment of OCTG Service Performance Test Systems Based on AHP

作　　者：张奕 陈宏达 许爱荣[2] 孙联昌 张蕾 吴健 王叙乔 

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团石油管工程技术研究院,陕西西安710077 [2]西安石油大学机械工程学院,陕西西安710065 [3]中国石油长庆油田分公司第十一采油厂,甘肃庆阳745000

出　　处：《西安石油大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第5期106-113,共8页Journal of Xi’an Shiyou University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基金资助项目(编号:2014JQ2-1004);中石油应用基础研究资助项目(编号:2014B-3313);中石油科技攻关重大专项资助项目(编号:2015E-400601)

摘　　要：为对数套高风险大型石油专用管服役性能试验系统进行有效的风险评估,提出了综合运用AHP法和打分法的系统动态风险评价方法。从试验系统的运行随机性和高风险特点考虑,以人-机-环-过程为主线,建立了系统整体风险评价的3层结构指标体系,运用文中给出的评价方法软件系统,进行了一套试验系统的风险指标权重因子与当前安全分值的计算以及风险评估。实际应用表明,该方法兼备可操作性和科学性,适宜于复杂的高风险石油专用管服役性能试验系统的风险评价。For the effective risk assessment of the three sets of large scale high-risk OCTG service performance test systems,a dynamic risk assessment method based on AHP and scoring method is proposed. Considering the operation randomness and high risk features of the test systems,a three-layer index system for the overall risk assessment of a test system was established,the assessment indexes including four aspects of the human,machine,environment and process. Taking a set of test system as an example,the risk index weights and the safety scoring values of it were calculated by using the developed software,and the dynamic risk of the test system was assessed. The application result shows that the risk assessment method established in this paper is operable and scientific,and it is suitable for the dynamic risk assessment of the large scale high-risk OCTG service performance test systems.

关 键 词：石油管试验系统 动态风险评价 指标体系 AHP 

分 类 号：TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备] TQ051.3[化学工程]