2016—2018年全球锗资源供需预测  

GLOBAL GERMANIUM RESOURCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECAST FROM 2016—2018

作　　者：张洪川[1] 王家鹏 王建国[1] 张志炳[1] 卢杰[1] ZHANG Hong-chuan WANG Jia-peng WANG Jian-guo ZHANG Zhi-bing LU Jie(School of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of C, eosciences, Beijing 100083； 2. Jiangxi Baoyuan Investment Co. Ltd. , Nanchang 330009, China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学地球科学与资源学院,北京100083 [2]江西省地矿宝源投资有限责任公司,江西南昌330009

出　　处：《资源与产业》2016年第4期92-97,共6页Resources & Industries

摘　　要：介绍全球锗金属的储量、分布、供需格局及价格走势,采用终端消费法预测了2016—2018年全球及中国锗金属供需情况和价格水平,最后针对未来锗金属供需形势,为锗金属产业投资者提出了对策建议。全球锗资源分布较集中,锗生产企业数量少。锗主要来源为铅锌矿伴生,其产量的释放受铅锌等金属产量限制较为明显,锗产量短期内无法大幅提高。未来锗市场需求总体将会保持一个逐步增长的势头,光纤需求回暖成为锗消费的主要增长点;受军用、民用市场带动,红外光学市场增长的趋势不断加强;随着航空航天领域和地面光伏产业的发展,未来太阳能电池用锗的需求将呈现逐步增长的趋势。锗金属价格在供需失衡的条件下将继续攀升。建议加强锗资源保护,合理赚取下游加工利润;锗红外市场为短中期投资首选,光伏市场为中长期的优良投资领域。This paper introduces the global germanium reserve,distribution,supply,demand and price,uses end consumption to forecast the world ＇s and China ＇s germanium supply and demand from 2016—2018,and presents suggestions for germanium investors. Germanium is mainly coexisting with lead-zinc deposit,limited by lead-zinc production. Its production cannot be largely increased. The future market will maintain a rising trend. Optic fiber may become a major increment point for Germanium. Driven by military and civil markets,infrared optics is also rising. As aviation and solar panel develops,germanium for solar batter will be in great demand. Its price will be climbing up when demand exceeds supply. This paper presents suggestions in protecting germanium resource,making rational profits in processing. Investors shall pay attention to germanium infrared market in the short term and to solar panel in the long term.

关 键 词：锗金属 供需格局 消费预测 对策建议 

分 类 号：F416.32[经济管理—产业经济]