南京市大气PM_(10)浓度的估算模型研究  

Study on Estimated Model of PM_(10) Concentration in Nanjing City

作　　者：龚绍琦[1] 陈桂礼 张茜茹[1] 李懿超[2] 李薛[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学地理与遥感学院,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学滨江学院,南京210044

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2016年第9期25-29,共5页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40801145);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(16YJCZH02);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目;南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室开放基金资助项目;江苏省高校大学生实践创新训练计划项目(20131398 2015Y)

摘　　要：以南京市为例,利用空气污染指数API、气象数据和TERRA/AQUA卫星气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)产品,分析了南京市PM_(10)浓度的变化规律,在PM_(10)浓度与气象要素进行相关分析的基础上,初步建立了基于气象要素和AOD的PM_(10)浓度估算模型。结果表明,南京市PM_(10)浓度在每年11,12月或1月最高,7,8月最低,季节性变化表现为冬春季浓度最高,秋季其次,夏季最低,PM_(10)浓度有逐年下降的趋势,但年均值仍高于国家II级标准;除了大气混合层高度外,PM_(10)浓度与大气压、风速、气温、相对湿度、水汽压、能见度、气溶胶光学厚度都有较好的相关性;基于气象要素的PM_(10)浓度估算模型的绝对系数R^2为0.510、平均相对误差为26.04%,基于AOD的PM_(10)浓度估算模型以TERRA和AQUA卫星AOD平均值构建的最佳,绝对系数R^2为0.482、平均相对误差26.11%,两种模型对PM_(10)的预测预报具有一定的指示意义。Taking Nanjing city as an example,using air pollution index API,meteorological data and aerosol optical depth AOD retrieved by MODIS images of TERRA and AQUA satellite,the variations of PM_（10） concentration are analyzed,the relationship of PM_（10） concentration and meteorological factors is discovered and the elementary estimated models of PM_（10） concentration are deduced based on the meteorological factors and AOD. The results show that the primary pollutant is PM_（10）,the air quality grade is fine and the air quality trends to better in Nanjing,that PM_（10） concentration is the highest in every January,November and December while it is the lowest in every July and August,that is the highest in Winter or Spring,second in Autumn and lowest in Summer,and it trends to decrease,but the annual average is still above the second level in national standard,that PM_（10） concentration has a good relationship with atmospheric pressure,wind speed,surface atmospheric temperature,relative humidity,water vapor pressure,visibility,AOD except for atmospheric mixed layer height. For PM_（10） concentration estimated model based on meteorological factors,its determined coefficient（ R2） is 0. 510 and the mean relative error（ MRE） is 26. 04%. For that based on AOD,the model deduced from the average AOD of TERRA and AQUA is the best,in which R2 is 0. 482 and the MRE is 26. 11%. Two models will play an instructive role in PM_（10） concentration monitoring.

关 键 词：PM10浓度 气溶胶光学厚度 气象要素 估算模型 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]