基于系统动力学的突发公共事件微博舆论场实证研究  

An Empirical Study of Microblog Opinions on Public Emergency using System Dynamics

作　　者：姜景[1] 张立超 刘怡君[3] 

机构地区：[1]安徽大学管理学院,合肥230601 [2]国信证券博士后工作站,广东深圳518001 [3]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2016年第5期868-873,共6页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71573247;91024010;91324009);中国科学院青年创新促进会资助项目(2014139)

摘　　要：随着互联网技术的发展,网络舆论已经超越了传统舆论成为社会舆论的主流。当前,我国存在着2个舆论场,其中以微博舆论为代表的"民间舆论场"在促进信息传播、汇聚社会舆论等方面的作用日益增大。从微博舆论入手,探讨了突发公共事件微博舆论场的特点与演化过程,并以"7·23"动车事故为实例,构建系统动力学模型,通过对系统模型的仿真,分析了系统中微博舆论热度与其他变量之间的关系。最后,对比模型前后两次仿真结果,提出相应的政策建议,提高政府在应对突发公共事件网络舆论的能力。With the development of network technology,network public opinions have surpassed the traditional ones and become the dominant public opinions.There are two public opinion fields in China at present,one is called＂civil public opinion field＂represented by microblog opinions.It is playing agreater role in spreading information and collecting public opinions.This paper takes microblog opinions as the subject,elaborates the characteristics and the evolution process of microblog opinion field on public emergency and using the 7·23train accident,constructs a system dynamics model.Through the simulation of the system model,the paper analyzes the relationship between the microblog opinion popularity and other variables in the system.Based on the results of the double comparisons of the model,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the government＇s ability to deal with network public opinions on public emergencies.

关 键 词：突发公共事件 微博舆论场 系统动力学 实证研究 

分 类 号：C912.6[经济管理]