高速公路分流区事故扩散最早恢复时间敏感性分析  

Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Determination of Earliest Recovery Time After Accident in Expressway Diverge Zone

作　　者：王建军[1] 李维佳[1] 金书鑫 

机构地区：[1]长安大学特殊地区公路工程教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2016年第9期121-127,共7页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划("八六三"计划)项目(2007AA11Z248);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(310821153402);陕西省交通运输厅科技项目(15-26K)

摘　　要：为给交通事故情况下的高速公路安全管理提供可靠的措施建议,应用交通流理论分析高速公路分流区交通事故影响传播,得到事故最早恢复时间计算模型,并通过选取典型的不确定因素、变动范围及变动间距,建立单因素敏感性分析图,以单因素敏感性分析中敏感性较强的3个不确定因素构建多因素敏感性分析表和分析图,在此基础上,采用MATLAB最小二乘法回归分析进行曲面拟合,得到了简化的高速公路分流区最早恢复时间计算函数式。研究结果表明:影响高速公路分流区事故最早恢复时间的不确定性因素敏感性由强到弱依次为主线上的交通量、事故结束时间、事故点到分流点的距离、自由流车速;与最初的事故最早恢复时间计算模型相比,该简化模型为复杂环境下的事故管理和车辆控制提供了更为有效的判决依据。To provide reliable measures and suggestions for the expressway safety management after a traffic accident,traffic flow theory was used to analyze the impact of traffic accident on the expressway diverge zone,and the calculation model of the accident earliest recovery time was obtained.Then typical uncertain factors,factors＇changing range and spacing were selected to build single-factor sensitivity analysis figure and table,in which the top three uncertain factors were used to build multi-factor sensitivity analysis figure and table.On this basis,MATLAB＇OLS regression analysis was used to fit the curves and the simplified function to calculate the accident earliest recovery time in expressway diverge zone was obtained.The results show that the uncertain factors,which influence the accident earliest recovery time in the expressway diverge zone,are the traffic volume in main line,the end time of accident,the distance from accident spot to diverging point and the free flow speed from strong to weak in terms of sensitivity;compared with the original calculation method of the accident earliest recovery time,the simplified model can provide an efficient criterion for accident management and vehicle control under complex traffic environment.

关 键 词：交通工程 事故最早恢复时间 因素敏感性 事故影响传播 高速公路分流区 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]