小汽车交通低碳化发展趋势与减排潜力分析  

Analysis of Development Trends and Reduction Potential of Low Carbonized Car Transport Development

作　　者：李振宇[1] 李超[1] 廖凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]交通运输部科学研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《中国能源》2016年第9期40-44,共5页Energy of China

基　　金：中国清洁发展机制基本赠款(CDM)项目"‘十三五’城市交通低碳发展目标;途径与措施研究"(编号:2013090)

摘　　要：近年来,由于我国小汽车数量快速增长和高强度使用造成了日益严重的城市交通拥堵、空气污染和温室气体排放快速增加等突出问题,未来城市交通的可持续发展面临着严峻挑战。本文首先梳理了我国小汽车交通现行的主要政策,分析了其实施效果,结合我国未来社会经济发展规划,提出了未来小汽车交通发展的5大趋势:共享化、智能化、低碳化、调控化和规范化。然后,设定了基准、低碳和强化低碳3种发展情景,利用LEAP模型对2010年至2030年我国小汽车交通的二氧化碳排放量进行了量化,明确其发展趋势,并分析了到2020年和2030年我国小汽车交通的节能减排潜力以及不同措施对碳减排的贡献比例,对提升我国小汽车交通的管理水平和制订小汽车交通的发展决策提供有益参考。In recent years, the rapid growing and high intensive using of cars has caused serious traffic congestion, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, which will be a big challenge for its future sustainable development. In the article, current policies are summarized and analyzed, according to the national social-economic development plan, five development trends of car transport are concluded： shareable, intelligent, low carbonized, manageable and standardized. After that, business as usual scenario, low carbon scenario and ultra-low carbon scenario are set. Based on LEAP model, carbon dioxide emission from 2010 to 2030 is quantified. The development trend of carbon dioxide emission is discovered in China. By analyzing the emission reduction potential in target years 2020 and 2030, and contribution ratio from each measure, this research gives a beneficial reference to the promoting of car management level and policy- making for car transport development in China.

关 键 词：小汽车 城市交通 需求管理 低碳化 模型 减排潜力 

分 类 号：X734.2[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F572[经济管理—产业经济] F426.471